One version of you dey wey people dey trust with di bigger questions, and no be di version wey sabi everything. Na di one wey dey exact about di edge of wetin e sabi. Dat person na dem dey ask again, na dem dey hand di harder brief, and na dem dem dey believe for di day wey di answer really matter.
Di moment wey dey build am small, and e dey make body uneasy small. Somebody senior ask you something specific, true true you no get am, and di silence don reach two seconds. Wetin you do inside di next ten seconds worth pass wetin di answer for worth, because everybody for dat table already sabi say nobody dey carry every number for im head. Wetin di room dey work out no be whether you get every number, na whether your confidence dey follow reality. Handle dis one clean two times and your yes go start to mean something.
Wetin you go talk when you no sabi di answer for meeting?
Talk three things, for dis order: wetin you sabi, wetin you no sabi, and when you go get di rest. "I no get dat figure. I sabi say di trend dey go up month on month. I go send you di number by four o'clock."
Na di order be di technique. To start with wetin you sabi dey keep you for di territory of somebody wey don dey pay attention, so di gap dey arrive as boundary on real knowledge instead of as blank space. To name di gap plain, for one short clause, dey stop am from growing. And di time for di end na wetin dey convert di whole thing from shortfall into plan, and na only dat part di room go remember by Friday.
Two rules dey make am work. Be exact about di gap: "I no get di regional split" strong, but "I never fully dey on top all of dat" na fog wey dey invite more question. And make di deadline real. Time wey you sure of dey beat fine time wey you fit miss, because di whole value of dis move na say you meet am.
One thing to leave out: di reason why you no get am. Nobody ask why, di explanation dey sound like defence whether you mean am so or not, and e dey chop di twenty seconds wey you for use for di part wey dey help. If di reason really matter, e belong inside di message wey you go send by four together with di number.
To admit say you no sabi, e dey cost you credibility?
Far less pass wetin almost everybody dey assume. One team of researchers run five experiments with 5,780 participants, dem publish am inside di Proceedings of di National Academy of Sciences for 2020, dey test wetin dey happen when dem communicate uncertainty alongside one number. People truly perceive more uncertainty, as e suppose be, but trust for di number drop only small and trust for di source drop only small, mostly when dem express di uncertainty with words instead of figures.
Di authors dia own reading na di useful part: communicator fit dey more open about di limit of wetin dem sabi without seriously damaging confidence for di data or for demsef. Dat research na about public statistics, no be about meeting, so treat am as direction of travel instead of promise about your Thursday. But di direction clear, and e dey run against di reflex wey dey talk say you must cover any gap.
Di reflex worth to name because e expensive. To fill gap with big grammar dey buy you about forty seconds and e dey cost you di next question, because now somebody must work out which part of wetin you talk dey actually carry weight. Vagueness dey read worse pass gap. Gap get edge.
Wetin you go do with di two seconds of silence first?
Take dem on purpose and talk am: "Give me one second on dat one." To name di pause dey convert am from stall into decision, and e dey buy you time to pick di correct three parts instead of di first thing wey land for your head.
You need dat line because two seconds long true true. Research on how people dey take turn to talk across ten languages, wey dem publish inside di Proceedings of di National Academy of Sciences, find say di gaps between speakers dey remarkably consistent worldwide and remarkably short, with every language average dey sit within about quarter of one second of di cross-language average. Dem build conversation to hand over inside fraction of one second. Anything past dat dey register as something, and if you no label am, di room go label am for you.
So label am. "Give me one second on dat one" na di whole line. Then allow di second actually happen. No fill am with hmm sound or preamble about how di question sweet, because di two of dem dey chop di pause wey you just buy.
Wetin if dem dey push you to guess?
Give range and label am as range. "My best estimate dey somewhere between eight and twelve percent, and I no go build plan on top am until I check" na answer, and e be different object from bare number.
Di label no be throat-clearing, na di accuracy. If you drop bare figure under pressure, dem go repeat am as bare figure, inside deck, next week, and you no go dey di room to add di caveat. To attach di uncertainty to di number na how you dey keep control of wetin go happen to am after e comot your mouth.
Second version dey wey good to keep ready, for when somebody really need direction instead of decimal. "I go plan for di higher end and I go confirm by Thursday." Dat one dey give di person wetin dem actually come for, wey na usually a way to keep moving, and e still dey end on date.
How dis one dey work for interview or for stage?
Di same three parts, compressed, plus one move: give dem di reasoning wey you for use find out. "I no get dat number for dis market. Na so I go take get am, and na dis I find when I do di same thing for di last one."
For interview nobody dey score your memory. Dem dey watch how you dey behave for di edge of wetin you sabi, because na dat you go dey do for di job most weeks. Candidate wey talk "I no get dat one" then think out loud for structured way dey show di exact thing wey dem wan buy.
For stage di compression matter pass, because audience no go sit down watch process. "I no get dat one here. Find me afterwards and I go send am give you." Then find dem. Di follow-through na di whole point, and more people go remember am pass di people wey hear di question.
Wetin dis one dey build over one year
Very small part of reputation dey built on di answers wey you get ready. Na di times wey you dey exactly clear about wetin you no get, then you arrive on time with di rest, na dem dey build am.
Di compounding real and e no dey glamorous. Do dis one ten times and people go start to route di important questions to you, because your uncertainty dey legible so your certainty come worth something. Dat no be smaller way to work. Na wetin dey allow you carry more pass wetin you fit currently answer, and na di only way anybody don ever grow enter bigger job, and e dey allow you keep doing am for twenty years without ever needing to remember which version of story you tell.
Sources
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Universals and cultural variation in turn-taking in conversation